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Welling Utd vs Billericay Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Welling Utd

PPG 1.16 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Billericay Town

PPG 1.65 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-19.0%0-210.1%0-37.5%0-4+7.1%1 1-03.9%1-18.8%1-29.8%1-37.3%1-4+6.9%2 2-01.9%2-14.3%2-24.8%2-33.6%2-4+3.4%3 3-00.6%3-11.4%3-21.6%3-31.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.2% 23.8% 4.20 -36.2%

Draw 19.0% 27.8% 3.60 -31.6%

Away win 65.8% 61.7% 1.62 +6.6%

Over 2.5 62.2% — — —

Over 3.5 40.0% — — —

BTTS 55.7% 63.7% 1.57 -12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -38.7%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob55.7%

A 66% / xG 1.0-2.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.1%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–1 9.0%

#4 1–1 8.8%

#5 0–3 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Welling Utd1.0

Billericay Town2.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

WELLING UTD · PPG 1.16

BILLERICAY TOWN · PPG 1.65

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.16) vs Away GOOD (1.65)

Win probability 1X2

Welling Utd (H) 15.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -36.2%

Draw 19.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -31.6%

Billericay Town (A) 65.8%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Welling Utd face Billericay Town in England - Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Welling Utd a 15% chance, the draw 19% and Billericay Town 66%, so Billericay Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Welling Utd and 2.2 for Billericay Town (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Welling Utd are averaging 1.16 points per game versus 1.65 for Billericay Town. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Welling Utd vs Billericay Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Match Preview & Prediction

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