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Billericay Town vs Whitehawk Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Billericay Town

PPG 2.25 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Whitehawk

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-13.1%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.1%1-17.6%1-24.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.8%2-19.5%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.3%3-17.8%3-24.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-18.7%4+-24.7%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.0% 73.5% 1.36 -7.5%

Draw 17.4% 21.1% 4.75 -17.3%

Away win 14.6% 16.7% 6.00 -12.4%

Over 2.5 68.9% 66.7% 1.50 +3.4%

Over 3.5 47.5% — — —

BTTS 60.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -38.7%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.4%

H 68% / xG 2.5-1.1 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 2–0✓ 8.8%

#3 3–1 7.8%

#4 1–1 7.6%

#5 3–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Billericay Town2.5

Whitehawk1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BILLERICAY TOWN · PPG 2.25

WHITEHAWK · PPG 0.95

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.25), Away POOR (0.95) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Billericay Town (H) 68.0%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -7.5%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -17.3%

Whitehawk (A) 14.6%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Billericay Town face Whitehawk in England - Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Billericay Town a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Whitehawk 15%, so Billericay Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Billericay Town and 1.1 for Whitehawk (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Billericay Town are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.95 for Whitehawk. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Billericay Town vs Whitehawk Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Match Preview & Prediction

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