Leagues / ENGLAND / National League - South
National League - South
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 27 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
48.1%
1X2
13/27
70.4%
O/U 2.5
19/27
66.7%
BTTS
18/27
37.0%
Exact score
10/27
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
26
Settled
61.5%
Hit rate
16/26
1.58
Avg odds
-3.6%
ROI
-0.9u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=10 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.60 · -18.7% ROI
BTTS · N=10 80.0% HIT · AVG 1.55 · +22.5% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=6 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.57 · -22.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
4
Bets
50%
Hit
-9.5%
ROI
✓ Solid
3
Bets
67%
Hit
-18.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
8
Bets
88%
Hit
+37.9%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
11
Bets
45%
Hit
-27.7%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
April 2026 // 14 PICKS · 7 HIT · 7 MISS
25 APR Weston-s.-Mare vs Dorking Home +27% 1–1 MISS25 APR Tonbridge vs Torquay Utd BTTS -2% 1–2 HIT25 APR Worthing vs Ebbsfleet Utd Over 2.5 -2% 2–0 MISS25 APR AFC Totton vs Farnborough Over 2.5 +7% 1–6 HIT25 APR Bath City vs Maidstone Utd BTTS -9% 2–3 HIT25 APR Chelmsford City vs Eastbourne Home +4% 1–3 MISS25 APR Dover Athletic vs Chesham Utd BTTS -14% 2–2 HIT25 APR Hampton e R. vs Enfield Town Over 2.5 +1% 1–0 MISS25 APR Hemel Hempstead vs Salisbury Home -14% 1–1 MISS25 APR Hornchurch vs Maidenhead Utd BTTS -14% 0–0 MISS25 APR Horsham vs Chippenham Home +36% 3–2 HIT25 APR Slough Town vs Dagenham e R. BTTS -8% 3–2 HIT18 APR Salisbury vs Horsham — NO PICK 2–1 —18 APR Chesham Utd vs Chelmsford City Over 2.5 -0% 0–2 MISS18 APR Chippenham vs Hornchurch BTTS +8% 1–3 HIT