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Dorking Wanderers vs Maidstone Utd Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Dorking Wanderers

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWW

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Maidstone Utd

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-18.8%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.0%1-112.6%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.0%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.3%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 42.6% 2.35 +5.8%

Draw 26.4% 29.0% 3.45 -5.3%

Away win 28.6% 38.5% 2.60 -15.4%

Over 2.5 50.1% 58.8% 1.70 -14.8%

Over 3.5 28.3% 36.4% 2.75 -13.3%

BTTS 53.0% 64.5% 1.55 -17.8%

Home O1.5 40.0% 48.8% 2.05 -18.0%

Away O1.5 33.1% 45.5% 2.20 -27.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dorking Wanderers1.4

Maidstone Utd1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DORKING WANDERERS · PPG 1.73

MAIDSTONE UTD · PPG 1.67

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.38, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dorking Wanderers (H) 45.0%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +5.8%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -5.3%

Maidstone Utd (A) 28.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dorking Wanderers face Maidstone Utd in England - National League - South on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dorking Wanderers a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Maidstone Utd 29%, so Dorking Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dorking Wanderers and 1.1 for Maidstone Utd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dorking Wanderers are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.67 for Maidstone Utd. This match finished 2-3.

Dorking Wanderers vs Maidstone Utd Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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