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Salisbury vs Hemel Hempstead Town Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Salisbury

PPG 1.81 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Hemel Hempstead Town

PPG 1.76 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 40.0% — a clear edge.

+25.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-18.2%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.2%1-112.2%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.1%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.2%3-14.5%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 40.0% 2.50 +25.8%

Draw 26.4% 30.8% 3.25 -8.5%

Away win 23.3% 40.0% 2.50 -25.1%

Over 2.5 44.8% 51.8% 1.93 -13.5%

Over 3.5 27.5% 30.3% 3.30 -5.5%

BTTS 48.9% 58.8% 1.70 -16.9%

Home O1.5 40.0% 42.6% 2.35 -6.0%

Away O1.5 22.8% 42.6% 2.35 -27.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.9%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.2%

#2 1–1 12.2%

#3 2–0 10.6%

#4 0–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Salisbury1.5

Hemel Hempstead Town0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SALISBURY · PPG 1.81

HEMEL HEMPSTEAD TOWN · PPG 1.76

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Salisbury (H) 50.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +25.8%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.5%

Hemel Hempstead Town (A) 23.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -25.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Salisbury face Hemel Hempstead Town in England - National League - South on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Salisbury a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Hemel Hempstead Town 23%, so Salisbury are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Salisbury and 0.9 for Hemel Hempstead Town (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Salisbury are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.76 for Hemel Hempstead Town. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Salisbury vs Hemel Hempstead Town Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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