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AFC Totton vs Chesham United Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

AFC Totton

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLD

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Chesham United

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.5%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.9%1-111.9%1-26.5%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.4%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.6%3-15.0%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 34.5% 2.90 +33.7%

Draw 24.8% 31.3% 3.20 -12.4%

Away win 29.1% 45.5% 2.20 -21.6%

Over 2.5 52.8% 59.9% 1.67 -11.8%

Over 3.5 31.2% 39.7% 2.52 -21.4%

BTTS 54.3% 63.7% 1.57 -14.8%

Home O1.5 47.6% 43.3% 2.31 +10.0%

Away O1.5 32.9% 51.3% 1.95 -35.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.3%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC Totton1.6

Chesham United1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC TOTTON · PPG 1.73

CHESHAM UNITED · PPG 0.91

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.50 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

AFC Totton (H) 46.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +33.7%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.4%

Chesham United (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Totton face Chesham United in England - National League - South on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Totton a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Chesham United 29%, so AFC Totton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for AFC Totton and 1.1 for Chesham United (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Totton are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.91 for Chesham United. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +22.8%. This match finished 0-4.

AFC Totton vs Chesham United Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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