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Weston-super-Mare vs Chelmsford City Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:00

Weston-super-Mare

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chelmsford City

PPG 1.37 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-16.9%0-23.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.9%1-111.5%1-25.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.6%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.0%3-15.3%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 40.8% 2.45 +27.9%

Draw 24.3% 30.8% 3.25 -12.6%

Away win 23.5% 38.5% 2.60 -23.3%

Over 2.5 50.6% 51.3% 1.95 -1.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.0% 3.45 -0.6%

BTTS 52.9% 57.8% 1.73 -8.5%

Home O1.5 49.1% 42.6% 2.35 +15.4%

Away O1.5 25.7% 40.8% 2.45 -22.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.5%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 2–0 10.7%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Weston-super-Mare1.7

Chelmsford City0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

WESTON-SUPER-MARE · PPG 1.93

CHELMSFORD CITY · PPG 1.37

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Weston-super-Mare (H) 52.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +27.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.6%

Chelmsford City (A) 23.5%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Weston-super-Mare face Chelmsford City in England - National League - South on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Weston-super-Mare a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Chelmsford City 24%, so Weston-super-Mare are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Weston-super-Mare and 0.9 for Chelmsford City (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Weston-super-Mare are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.37 for Chelmsford City. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +35.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Weston-super-Mare vs Chelmsford City Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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