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Torquay vs Hampton & Richmond Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Torquay

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Hampton & Richmond

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-13.7%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.7%1-18.4%1-24.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.0%2-19.7%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-17.5%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-17.4%4+-23.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.8% 71.4% 1.40 -20.5%

Draw 21.7% 21.7% 4.60 -0.1%

Away win 21.5% 17.2% 5.80 +14.8%

Over 2.5 62.2% 63.7% 1.57 -2.4%

Over 3.5 39.3% 42.0% 2.38 -6.5%

BTTS 55.0% 57.8% 1.73 -4.9%

Home O1.5 65.8% 69.4% 1.44 -5.3%

Away O1.5 27.1% 25.0% 4.00 +5.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.0%

H 57% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.4%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 1–2 4.1%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torquay2.3

Hampton & Richmond1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TORQUAY · PPG 1.63

HAMPTON & RICHMOND · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.34 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Torquay (H) 56.8%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -20.5%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -0.1%

Hampton & Richmond (A) 21.5%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torquay face Hampton & Richmond in England - National League - South on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torquay a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Hampton & Richmond 22%, so Torquay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Torquay and 1.0 for Hampton & Richmond (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torquay are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 0.75 for Hampton & Richmond. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +25.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Torquay vs Hampton & Richmond Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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