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Maidenhead vs AFC Totton Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:00

Maidenhead

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

AFC Totton

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-18.3%0-23.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.3%1-112.2%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-18.9%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.5%3-14.3%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 61.0% 1.64 -14.6%

Draw 26.0% 26.7% 3.75 -1.5%

Away win 21.9% 22.2% 4.50 -0.9%

Over 2.5 45.4% 58.8% 1.70 -22.8%

Over 3.5 25.9% 36.4% 2.75 -17.3%

BTTS 48.0% 59.9% 1.67 -19.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 60.6% 1.65 -34.2%

Away O1.5 23.4% 31.3% 3.20 -15.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.3%

#2 1–1✓ 12.2%

#3 2–0 11.2%

#4 0–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maidenhead1.5

AFC Totton0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.4% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MAIDENHEAD · PPG 1.57

AFC TOTTON · PPG 1.41

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Maidenhead (H) 52.1%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -14.6%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.5%

AFC Totton (A) 21.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maidenhead face AFC Totton in England - National League - South on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maidenhead a 52% chance, the draw 26% and AFC Totton 22%, so Maidenhead are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Maidenhead and 0.8 for AFC Totton (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maidenhead are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.41 for AFC Totton. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Maidenhead vs AFC Totton Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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