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Hemel Hempstead Town vs Weston-super-Mare Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Hemel Hempstead Town

PPG 1.39 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Weston-super-Mare

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-110.2%0-25.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.7%1-113.1%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.2%2-18.4%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.5%3-13.6%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 40.8% 2.45 +6.3%

Draw 27.2% 33.3% 3.00 -11.0%

Away win 29.3% 37.0% 2.70 -12.5%

Over 2.5 50.5% 44.4% 2.25 +13.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.0% 4.00 +8.9%

BTTS 52.7% 54.1% 1.85 -2.5%

Home O1.5 37.2% 38.2% 2.62 -2.5%

Away O1.5 32.6% 33.3% 3.00 -2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 43% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 0–0 9.9%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hemel Hempstead Town1.3

Weston-super-Mare1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HEMEL HEMPSTEAD TOWN · PPG 1.39

WESTON-SUPER-MARE · PPG 1.28

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.25, combined xG 2.31 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hemel Hempstead Town (H) 43.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +6.3%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.0%

Weston-super-Mare (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hemel Hempstead Town face Weston-super-Mare in England - National League - South on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hemel Hempstead Town a 43% chance, the draw 27% and Weston-super-Mare 29%, so Hemel Hempstead Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Hemel Hempstead Town and 1.0 for Weston-super-Mare (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hemel Hempstead Town are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.28 for Weston-super-Mare. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.6%. This match finished 1-3.

Hemel Hempstead Town vs Weston-super-Mare Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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