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Maidenhead vs Farnborough Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Maidenhead

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Farnborough

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-18.0%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.6%1-112.2%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.2%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.2%3-14.7%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 54.1% 1.85 -11.2%

Draw 27.2% 27.8% 3.60 -1.3%

Away win 24.8% 28.6% 3.50 -7.9%

Over 2.5 48.4% 58.8% 1.70 -17.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% 37.0% 2.70 -14.5%

BTTS 49.1% 62.5% 1.60 -21.4%

Home O1.5 40.0% 56.5% 1.77 -29.2%

Away O1.5 22.8% 37.7% 2.65 -23.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.1%

H 48% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.2%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 0–0 9.0%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maidenhead1.5

Farnborough0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MAIDENHEAD · PPG 1.67

FARNBOROUGH · PPG 1.46

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Maidenhead (H) 48.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -11.2%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.3%

Farnborough (A) 24.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maidenhead face Farnborough in England - National League - South on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maidenhead a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Farnborough 25%, so Maidenhead are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Maidenhead and 0.9 for Farnborough (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maidenhead are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.46 for Farnborough. This match finished 1-1.

Maidenhead vs Farnborough Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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