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Maidstone Utd vs Salisbury Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Maidstone Utd

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Salisbury

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-16.9%0-23.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.8%1-111.5%1-26.1%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.6%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.0%3-15.4%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 60.6% 1.65 -20.0%

Draw 24.4% 27.8% 3.60 -7.3%

Away win 27.0% 21.7% 4.60 +14.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 57.8% 1.73 -7.4%

Over 3.5 31.7% 36.4% 2.75 -12.8%

BTTS 55.0% 58.8% 1.70 -6.5%

Home O1.5 48.9% 61.7% 1.62 -20.8%

Away O1.5 32.6% 30.8% 3.25 +5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.0%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1✓ 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 1–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maidstone Utd1.7

Salisbury1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MAIDSTONE UTD · PPG 1.45

SALISBURY · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Maidstone Utd (H) 48.5%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -20.0%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.3%

Salisbury (A) 27.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maidstone Utd face Salisbury in England - National League - South on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maidstone Utd a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Salisbury 27%, so Maidstone Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Maidstone Utd and 1.1 for Salisbury (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maidstone Utd are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.98 for Salisbury. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +17.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Maidstone Utd vs Salisbury Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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