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Hampton & Richmond vs Slough Town Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Hampton & Richmond

PPG 1.34 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDL

5 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Slough Town

PPG 0.96 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.8% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.1%0-24.3%0-32.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-05.3%1-19.1%1-27.9%1-34.5%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.8%2-18.3%2-27.1%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.9%3-15.0%3-24.3%3-32.4%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.4%4+-22.9%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% 47.6% 2.10 -20.4%

Draw 21.9% 28.6% 3.50 -14.0%

Away win 40.2% 34.5% 2.90 +16.6%

Over 2.5 64.8% 60.6% 1.65 +6.9%

Over 3.5 43.5% 38.5% 2.60 +13.1%

BTTS 63.2% 65.4% 1.53 -3.3%

Home O1.5 48.8% 54.1% 1.85 -9.7%

Away O1.5 48.5% 43.5% 2.30 +11.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.2%

A 40% / xG 1.8-1.7 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 7.9%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hampton & Richmond1.8

Slough Town1.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMPTON & RICHMOND · PPG 1.34

SLOUGH TOWN · PPG 0.96

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hampton & Richmond (H) 37.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -20.4%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.0%

Slough Town (A) 40.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hampton & Richmond face Slough Town in England - National League - South on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hampton & Richmond a 38% chance, the draw 22% and Slough Town 40%, so Slough Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hampton & Richmond and 1.7 for Slough Town (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hampton & Richmond are averaging 1.34 points per game versus 0.96 for Slough Town. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +36.4%. This match finished 5-3.

Hampton & Richmond vs Slough Town Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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