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Chelmsford City vs Maidenhead Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Chelmsford City

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Maidenhead

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-110.5%0-24.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.8%1-113.1%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.2%2-18.1%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.8%3-13.4%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.0% 50.0% 2.00 -16.0%

Draw 30.5% 30.3% 3.30 +0.7%

Away win 27.5% 30.8% 3.25 -6.4%

Over 2.5 43.1% 51.3% 1.95 -16.0%

Over 3.5 20.7% 29.4% 3.40 -17.8%

BTTS 47.2% 57.1% 1.75 -17.4%

Home O1.5 35.0% 47.6% 2.10 -26.5%

Away O1.5 25.7% 33.3% 3.00 -13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

H 42% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 11.9%

#3 1–0✓ 14.8%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chelmsford City1.2

Maidenhead0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHELMSFORD CITY · PPG 1.50

MAIDENHEAD · PPG 1.42

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.36, combined xG 2.13 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chelmsford City (H) 42.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -16.0%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +0.7%

Maidenhead (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chelmsford City face Maidenhead in England - National League - South on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chelmsford City a 42% chance, the draw 31% and Maidenhead 28%, so Chelmsford City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Chelmsford City and 0.9 for Maidenhead (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chelmsford City are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.42 for Maidenhead. This match finished 1-0.

Chelmsford City vs Maidenhead Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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