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Chesham United vs Dover Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:00

Chesham United

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Dover

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.6%0-22.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.0%1-19.5%1-25.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.6%3-16.7%3-24.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-15.6%4+-23.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.3% 63.7% 1.57 -14.8%

Draw 22.1% 25.6% 3.90 -8.3%

Away win 23.6% 21.1% 4.75 +7.3%

Over 2.5 63.4% 63.7% 1.57 -0.5%

Over 3.5 40.2% 41.7% 2.40 -3.5%

BTTS 61.5% 63.7% 1.57 -3.4%

Home O1.5 60.1% 65.4% 1.53 -8.1%

Away O1.5 35.0% 33.9% 2.95 +3.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–2 5.7%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chesham United2.1

Dover1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CHESHAM UNITED · PPG 1.86

DOVER · PPG 1.31

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Chesham United (H) 54.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -14.8%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -8.3%

Dover (A) 23.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chesham United face Dover in England - National League - South on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chesham United a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Dover 24%, so Chesham United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Chesham United and 1.2 for Dover (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chesham United are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.31 for Dover. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +19.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Chesham United vs Dover Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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