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Hampton & Richmond vs Maidstone Utd Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:00

Hampton & Richmond

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDL

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Maidstone Utd

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a clear edge.

+12.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-16.7%0-26.0%0-33.5%0-4+2.4%1 1-05.7%1-110.1%1-28.9%1-35.3%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.2%2-17.5%2-26.7%2-34.0%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.1%3-13.8%3-23.3%3-32.0%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.0%4+-21.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 29.0% 3.45 +18.3%

Draw 22.7% 27.4% 3.65 -10.3%

Away win 42.9% 54.1% 1.85 -20.6%

Over 2.5 63.7% 56.5% 1.77 +12.8%

Over 3.5 40.5% 33.9% 2.95 +19.5%

BTTS 63.4% 59.9% 1.67 +5.9%

Home O1.5 39.9% 36.4% 2.75 +9.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 54.6% 1.83 -12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.4%

A 43% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 0–2 6.0%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hampton & Richmond1.5

Maidstone Utd1.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMPTON & RICHMOND · PPG 1.62

MAIDSTONE UTD · PPG 1.86

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hampton & Richmond (H) 34.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +18.3%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -10.3%

Maidstone Utd (A) 42.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hampton & Richmond face Maidstone Utd in England - National League - South on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hampton & Richmond a 34% chance, the draw 23% and Maidstone Utd 43%, so Maidstone Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Hampton & Richmond and 1.8 for Maidstone Utd (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hampton & Richmond are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.86 for Maidstone Utd. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +27.8%. This match finished 1-4.

Hampton & Richmond vs Maidstone Utd Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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