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Dagenham & Redbridge vs Torquay Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Dagenham & Redbridge

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Torquay

PPG 1.68 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-17.8%0-24.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.8%1-112.1%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.4%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.7%3-14.9%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 39.2% 2.55 +23.7%

Draw 26.8% 29.9% 3.35 -6.1%

Away win 24.7% 40.8% 2.45 -23.7%

Over 2.5 50.2% 56.5% 1.77 -11.2%

Over 3.5 28.4% 33.9% 2.95 -9.7%

BTTS 53.0% 62.5% 1.60 -15.2%

Home O1.5 44.8% 45.5% 2.20 -1.4%

Away O1.5 32.3% 46.5% 2.15 -30.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 2–0✓ 9.2%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dagenham & Redbridge1.6

Torquay1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DAGENHAM & REDBRIDGE · PPG 1.83

TORQUAY · PPG 1.68

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dagenham & Redbridge (H) 48.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +23.7%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.1%

Torquay (A) 24.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -23.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dagenham & Redbridge face Torquay in England - National League - South on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dagenham & Redbridge a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Torquay 25%, so Dagenham & Redbridge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Dagenham & Redbridge and 1.0 for Torquay (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dagenham & Redbridge are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.68 for Torquay. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Dagenham & Redbridge vs Torquay Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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