| Grade | Bets | Hit% | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 9 | 66.7% | +500.0% |
| Unrated | 3 | 66.7% | +667.0% |
| Market | Bets | Hit% | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over2.5 | 9 | 66.7% | +167.0% |
| Home | 2 | 50.0% | −1000.0% |
| BTTS | 1 | 100.0% | +7000.0% |
| Verdict | Bets | Hit% | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | Best EV: Over2.5 @15% | 1 | 100.0% | +5700.0% |
| ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | Best EV: Home @30% | 1 | 100.0% | +8000.0% |
| ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | Best EV: Away @54% | 1 | 100.0% | +5300.0% |
| ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value | 1 | 100.0% | +5000.0% |
| ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | Best EV: Away @20% | 1 | 100.0% | +4500.0% |
| ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | Best EV: Away @29% | 1 | 0.0% | −10000.0% |
| 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned | Best EV: Home @17% | 1 | 0.0% | −10000.0% |
| ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value | 1 | 0.0% | −10000.0% |
| ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | Best EV: Over2.5 @20% | 1 | 100.0% | +7500.0% |
| ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | Best EV: Over2.5 @8% | 1 | 100.0% | +7000.0% |
| ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | Best EV: Home @20% | 1 | 100.0% | +3500.0% |
| ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | Best EV: Over2.5 @16% | 1 | 0.0% | −10000.0% |
| Date | Match | Pick | Odds | Result | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr | Radcliffe vs Macclesfield | Over 2.5 | 16% EV | 1-0 | MISS |
| 25 Apr | Merthyr Town vs AFC Fylde | Over 2.5 | 10% EV | 2-4 | HIT |
| 25 Apr | Southport vs Telford Utd | BTTS | -7% EV | 2-0 | MISS |
| 25 Apr | Spennymoor vs Marine | BTTS | -10% EV | 1-1 | HIT |
| 25 Apr | Alfreton Town vs Curzon | BTTS | -5% EV | 3-3 | HIT |
| 25 Apr | Bedford Town vs Scarborough | BTTS | -12% EV | 1-1 | HIT |
| 25 Apr | Buxton vs Leamington | Home | -10% EV | 4-1 | HIT |
| 25 Apr | Chester vs Kings Lynn | BTTS | -6% EV | 0-0 | MISS |
| 25 Apr | Chorley vs Worksop Town | BTTS | 0% EV | 2-1 | HIT |
| 25 Apr | Darlington vs Oxford City | Over 2.5 | -8% EV | 1-3 | HIT |
| 25 Apr | Hereford Utd vs Peterborough S. | Over 2.5 | -1% EV | 2-2 | HIT |
| 25 Apr | Kidderminster vs South Shields | BTTS | -15% EV | 1-0 | MISS |
| 21 Apr | Macclesfield vs Southport | Over 2.5 | 20% EV | 2-1 | HIT |
| 18 Apr | Telford Utd vs Darlington | Over 2.5 | 3% EV | 1-1 | MISS |
| 18 Apr | AFC Fylde vs Southport | Home | -9% EV | 4-0 | HIT |
| 18 Apr | Curzon vs Buxton | Over 2.5 | 3% EV | 0-4 | HIT |
| 18 Apr | Hereford Utd vs Radcliffe | Over 2.5 | 6% EV | 3-1 | HIT |
| 18 Apr | Kings Lynn vs Chorley | BTTS | -10% EV | 1-1 | HIT |
| 18 Apr | Leamington vs Kidderminster | Away | -16% EV | 2-3 | HIT |
| 18 Apr | Macclesfield vs Spennymoor | Over 2.5 | 2% EV | 0-2 | MISS |
| 18 Apr | Marine vs Alfreton Town | Home | 17% EV | 2-3 | MISS |
| 18 Apr | Oxford City vs Chester | BTTS | -3% EV | 1-2 | HIT |
| 18 Apr | Scarborough vs Merthyr Town | BTTS | -11% EV | 2-1 | HIT |
| 18 Apr | South Shields vs Bedford Town | Home | -5% EV | 1-1 | MISS |
| 18 Apr | Worksop Town vs Peterborough S. | Over 2.5 | -5% EV | 8-0 | HIT |
| 14 Apr | Alfreton Town vs Buxton | Away | -14% EV | 2-2 | MISS |
| 14 Apr | South Shields vs Macclesfield | Home | 30% EV | 4-1 | HIT |
| 14 Apr | Radcliffe vs Kidderminster | BTTS | -2% EV | 1-3 | HIT |
| 14 Apr | Marine vs Merthyr Town | Over 2.5 | 15% EV | 1-3 | HIT |