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Darlington 1883 vs Macclesfield Prediction— England - National League - North

National League North · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Darlington 1883

PPG 1.02 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Macclesfield

PPG 1.66 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-18.4%0-26.2%0-33.0%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.0%1-111.7%1-28.6%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.5%2-18.1%2-26.0%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.6%3-13.8%3-22.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 29.4% 3.40 +20.7%

Draw 24.1% 28.6% 3.50 -9.4%

Away win 40.5% 52.6% 1.90 -23.1%

Over 2.5 59.2% 58.8% 1.70 +0.6%

Over 3.5 36.1% 38.2% 2.62 -5.4%

BTTS 59.9% 61.7% 1.62 -3.0%

Home O1.5 38.9% 38.2% 2.62 +1.9%

Away O1.5 40.9% 55.6% 1.80 -26.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.9%

A 40% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2✓ 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–1 8.4%

#5 0–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Darlington 18831.4

Macclesfield1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DARLINGTON 1883 · PPG 1.02

MACCLESFIELD · PPG 1.66

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Darlington 1883 (H) 35.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +20.7%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.4%

Macclesfield (A) 40.5%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -23.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Darlington 1883 face Macclesfield in England - National League - North on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Darlington 1883 a 36% chance, the draw 24% and Macclesfield 41%, so Macclesfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Darlington 1883 and 1.5 for Macclesfield (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Darlington 1883 are averaging 1.02 points per game versus 1.66 for Macclesfield. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Darlington 1883 vs Macclesfield Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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