Today / England - National League - North / Merthyr Town vs Chorley

Merthyr Town vs Chorley Prediction— England - National League - North

National League North · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Merthyr Town

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chorley

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.1%0-24.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.0%1-110.7%1-27.2%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.3%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.1%3-15.4%3-23.6%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.5%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 42.0% 2.38 +8.5%

Draw 24.5% 29.4% 3.40 -10.0%

Away win 29.9% 40.8% 2.45 -16.1%

Over 2.5 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 38.2% 2.62 -3.9%

BTTS 60.7% 61.7% 1.62 -1.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 47.4% 2.11 +3.2%

Away O1.5 40.9% 46.3% 2.16 -11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.7%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Merthyr Town1.7

Chorley1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MERTHYR TOWN · PPG 1.59

CHORLEY · PPG 1.19

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Merthyr Town (H) 45.6%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +8.5%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.0%

Chorley (A) 29.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Merthyr Town face Chorley in England - National League - North on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Merthyr Town a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Chorley 30%, so Merthyr Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Merthyr Town and 1.3 for Chorley (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Merthyr Town are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.19 for Chorley. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Merthyr Town vs Chorley Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - National League - North Predictions