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Worksop Town vs Oxford City Prediction— England - National League - North

National League North · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:00

Worksop Town

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Oxford City

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-18.9%0-26.7%0-33.4%0-4+1.8%1 1-07.8%1-111.8%1-28.9%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.2%2-17.8%2-25.9%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.3%3-13.4%3-22.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% 40.0% 2.50 -23.0%

Draw 24.3% 29.4% 3.40 -10.4%

Away win 45.0% 40.0% 2.50 +12.5%

Over 2.5 59.6% 56.5% 1.77 +5.5%

Over 3.5 36.4% 33.9% 2.95 +7.4%

BTTS 58.4% 62.5% 1.60 -6.6%

Home O1.5 38.6% 45.5% 2.20 -15.1%

Away O1.5 44.5% 45.5% 2.20 -2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.4%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 0–1✓ 8.9%

#4 2–1 7.8%

#5 0–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Worksop Town1.3

Oxford City1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WORKSOP TOWN · PPG 1.45

OXFORD CITY · PPG 1.71

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Worksop Town (H) 30.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -23.0%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.4%

Oxford City (A) 45.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Worksop Town face Oxford City in England - National League - North on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Worksop Town a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Oxford City 45%, so Oxford City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Worksop Town and 1.5 for Oxford City (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Worksop Town are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.71 for Oxford City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Worksop Town vs Oxford City Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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