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Spennymoor Town vs Oxford City Prediction— England - National League - North

National League North · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Spennymoor Town

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLD

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Oxford City

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-110.5%0-26.4%0-32.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.6%1-112.9%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.5%2-18.0%2-24.9%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.7%3-13.3%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 42.0% 2.38 -14.3%

Draw 27.2% 30.3% 3.30 -6.1%

Away win 36.8% 37.7% 2.65 -2.5%

Over 2.5 50.1% 55.6% 1.80 -9.8%

Over 3.5 28.1% 33.3% 3.00 -9.4%

BTTS 53.0% 61.7% 1.62 -14.1%

Home O1.5 33.5% 46.5% 2.15 -28.0%

Away O1.5 37.3% 43.5% 2.30 -14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.0%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–1 10.5%

#3 0–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spennymoor Town1.2

Oxford City1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SPENNYMOOR TOWN · PPG 1.69

OXFORD CITY · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.01, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Spennymoor Town (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -14.3%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.1%

Oxford City (A) 36.8%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spennymoor Town face Oxford City in England - National League - North on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spennymoor Town a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Oxford City 37%, so Oxford City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Spennymoor Town and 1.2 for Oxford City (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spennymoor Town are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.50 for Oxford City. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 1-4.

Spennymoor Town vs Oxford City Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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