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Buxton vs Merthyr Town Prediction— England - National League - North

National League North · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:00

Buxton

PPG 1.48 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Merthyr Town

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.8%0-24.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.3%1-110.3%1-27.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.5%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.8%3-15.4%3-23.8%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.6%4+-22.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 61.0% 1.64 -25.4%

Draw 24.3% 24.4% 4.10 -0.2%

Away win 30.2% 24.4% 4.10 +23.8%

Over 2.5 61.8% 69.0% 1.45 -10.4%

Over 3.5 40.2% 46.5% 2.15 -13.6%

BTTS 61.5% 69.0% 1.45 -10.8%

Home O1.5 49.9% 67.6% 1.48 -26.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 39.2% 2.55 +7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1✓ 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Buxton1.8

Merthyr Town1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.8% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BUXTON · PPG 1.48

MERTHYR TOWN · PPG 1.28

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Buxton (H) 45.5%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -25.4%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -0.2%

Merthyr Town (A) 30.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Buxton face Merthyr Town in England - National League - North on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buxton a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Merthyr Town 30%, so Buxton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Buxton and 1.4 for Merthyr Town (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buxton are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.28 for Merthyr Town. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Buxton vs Merthyr Town Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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