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Oxford City vs Buxton Prediction— England - National League - North

National League North · Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:45

Oxford City

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLW

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Buxton

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.3%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.1%1-111.8%1-26.3%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.5%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.8%3-15.1%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 35.7% 2.80 +44.5%

Draw 24.4% 29.0% 3.45 -9.5%

Away win 24.0% 45.5% 2.20 -28.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 61.7% 1.62 -13.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 39.2% 2.55 -19.7%

BTTS 54.3% 66.7% 1.50 -18.6%

Home O1.5 48.8% 45.5% 2.20 +7.4%

Away O1.5 32.6% 52.4% 1.91 -37.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.3%

H 52% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oxford City1.6

Buxton1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OXFORD CITY · PPG 1.59

BUXTON · PPG 1.31

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Oxford City (H) 51.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +44.5%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.5%

Buxton (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -28.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oxford City face Buxton in England - National League - North on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oxford City a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Buxton 24%, so Oxford City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Oxford City and 1.1 for Buxton (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oxford City are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.31 for Buxton. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 2-3.

Oxford City vs Buxton Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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