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Southport vs Hereford Prediction— England - National League - North

National League North · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:00

Southport

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Hereford

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.9%0-25.3%0-32.7%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.1%1-110.8%1-28.3%1-34.2%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.5%2-26.5%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.9%3-14.4%3-23.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.4%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 40.8% 2.45 -11.3%

Draw 23.5% 29.4% 3.40 -12.1%

Away win 40.3% 40.0% 2.50 +0.8%

Over 2.5 61.9% 58.8% 1.70 +5.2%

Over 3.5 40.2% 37.0% 2.70 +8.5%

BTTS 61.5% 64.5% 1.55 -4.7%

Home O1.5 46.2% 47.6% 2.10 -3.0%

Away O1.5 47.9% 47.6% 2.10 +0.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

A 40% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 0–2 5.3%

#5 0–1✓ 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Southport1.6

Hereford1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.9% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTHPORT · PPG 1.61

HEREFORD · PPG 1.23

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Southport (H) 36.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -11.3%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.1%

Hereford (A) 40.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Southport face Hereford in England - National League - North on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Southport a 36% chance, the draw 24% and Hereford 40%, so Hereford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Southport and 1.5 for Hereford (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Southport are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.23 for Hereford. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Southport vs Hereford Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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