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King's Lynn Town vs Scarborough Athletic Prediction— England - National League - North

National League North · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:00

King's Lynn Town

PPG 1.02 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Scarborough Athletic

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+14.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-17.2%0-26.4%0-33.8%0-4+2.5%1 1-05.8%1-110.3%1-29.1%1-35.4%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.1%2-17.3%2-26.5%2-33.9%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.0%3-13.5%3-23.1%3-31.8%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.1% 38.2% 2.62 -21.1%

Draw 22.9% 32.3% 3.10 -17.4%

Away win 47.0% 40.8% 2.45 +15.2%

Over 2.5 63.7% 55.6% 1.80 +14.7%

Over 3.5 40.5% 33.3% 3.00 +21.5%

BTTS 62.3% 59.9% 1.67 +4.0%

Home O1.5 39.9% 44.4% 2.25 -10.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 38.2% 2.62 +25.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob62.3%

A 47% / xG 1.4-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 0–2 6.4%

#5 0–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

King's Lynn Town1.4

Scarborough Athletic1.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KING'S LYNN TOWN · PPG 1.02

SCARBOROUGH ATHLETIC · PPG 1.46

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

King's Lynn Town (H) 30.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -21.1%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.4%

Scarborough Athletic (A) 47.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

King's Lynn Town face Scarborough Athletic in England - National League - North on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives King's Lynn Town a 30% chance, the draw 23% and Scarborough Athletic 47%, so Scarborough Athletic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for King's Lynn Town and 1.8 for Scarborough Athletic (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, King's Lynn Town are averaging 1.02 points per game versus 1.46 for Scarborough Athletic. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +35.0%. This match finished 3-1.

King's Lynn Town vs Scarborough Athletic Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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