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Bedford Town vs Spennymoor Town Prediction— England - National League - North

National League North · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Bedford Town

PPG 1.41 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Spennymoor Town

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.6%0-23.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.5%1-110.3%1-27.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.2%3-15.7%3-23.9%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.9%4+-22.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 42.6% 2.35 +10.4%

Draw 23.4% 29.4% 3.40 -12.3%

Away win 29.6% 39.2% 2.55 -14.7%

Over 2.5 63.1% 58.8% 1.70 +7.3%

Over 3.5 39.3% 38.2% 2.62 +3.0%

BTTS 62.8% 61.7% 1.62 +1.7%

Home O1.5 51.7% 45.2% 2.21 +14.3%

Away O1.5 40.9% 45.7% 2.19 -10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.8%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 1–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bedford Town1.8

Spennymoor Town1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BEDFORD TOWN · PPG 1.41

SPENNYMOOR TOWN · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bedford Town (H) 47.0%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +10.4%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.3%

Spennymoor Town (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bedford Town face Spennymoor Town in England - National League - North on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bedford Town a 47% chance, the draw 23% and Spennymoor Town 30%, so Bedford Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bedford Town and 1.4 for Spennymoor Town (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bedford Town are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.25 for Spennymoor Town. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Bedford Town vs Spennymoor Town Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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