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Chorley vs Scarborough Athletic Prediction— England - National League - North

National League North · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Chorley

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Scarborough Athletic

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.

+20.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.6%0-25.1%0-32.7%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.7%1-110.6%1-28.3%1-34.3%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.4%2-18.5%2-26.6%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.9%3-14.5%3-23.5%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.6%4+-22.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 38.5% 2.60 +1.7%

Draw 24.1% 30.8% 3.25 -13.0%

Away win 36.8% 40.8% 2.45 -9.8%

Over 2.5 62.6% 51.8% 1.93 +20.8%

Over 3.5 39.4% 30.3% 3.30 +30.0%

BTTS 61.3% 58.8% 1.70 +4.2%

Home O1.5 47.4% 40.8% 2.45 +16.1%

Away O1.5 48.5% 43.5% 2.30 +11.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.3%

H 39% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1✓ 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chorley1.6

Scarborough Athletic1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CHORLEY · PPG 1.33

SCARBOROUGH ATHLETIC · PPG 1.71

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chorley (H) 39.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +1.7%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.0%

Scarborough Athletic (A) 36.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chorley face Scarborough Athletic in England - National League - North on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chorley a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Scarborough Athletic 37%, so Chorley are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Chorley and 1.6 for Scarborough Athletic (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chorley are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.71 for Scarborough Athletic. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Chorley vs Scarborough Athletic Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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