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Scarborough Athletic vs Southport Prediction— England - National League - North

National League North · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Scarborough Athletic

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Southport

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.6%0-23.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.1%1-110.3%1-26.6%1-32.8%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.7%3-15.9%3-23.8%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.2%4+-22.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 52.6% 1.90 -8.6%

Draw 22.9% 28.6% 3.50 -11.9%

Away win 29.0% 29.4% 3.40 -0.8%

Over 2.5 62.3% 57.8% 1.73 +7.8%

Over 3.5 39.3% 36.4% 2.75 +8.1%

BTTS 61.2% 59.9% 1.67 +2.2%

Home O1.5 56.3% 54.6% 1.83 +3.0%

Away O1.5 36.6% 36.4% 2.75 +0.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.2%

H 48% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–2 6.6%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Scarborough Athletic1.9

Southport1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SCARBOROUGH ATHLETIC · PPG 1.59

SOUTHPORT · PPG 1.06

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Scarborough Athletic (H) 48.1%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -8.6%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.9%

Southport (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Scarborough Athletic face Southport in England - National League - North on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Scarborough Athletic a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Southport 29%, so Scarborough Athletic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Scarborough Athletic and 1.3 for Southport (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Scarborough Athletic are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.06 for Southport. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 5-1.

Scarborough Athletic vs Southport Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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