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AFC Telford United vs Bedford Town Prediction— England - National League - North

National League North · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:00

AFC Telford United

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Bedford Town

PPG 0.84 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.4%0-23.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.7%1-110.1%1-26.7%1-32.9%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.5%3-16.0%3-23.9%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.3%4+-22.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 54.6% 1.83 -14.5%

Draw 23.9% 26.7% 3.75 -6.2%

Away win 29.4% 28.6% 3.50 +1.7%

Over 2.5 63.2% 61.7% 1.62 +2.4%

Over 3.5 40.2% 38.5% 2.60 +4.5%

BTTS 61.5% 63.7% 1.57 -3.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 58.8% 1.70 -5.1%

Away O1.5 41.5% 38.5% 2.60 +7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 47% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC Telford United1.9

Bedford Town1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC TELFORD UNITED · PPG 1.31

BEDFORD TOWN · PPG 0.84

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

AFC Telford United (H) 46.7%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -14.5%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.2%

Bedford Town (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Telford United face Bedford Town in England - National League - North on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Telford United a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Bedford Town 29%, so AFC Telford United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for AFC Telford United and 1.3 for Bedford Town (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Telford United are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.84 for Bedford Town. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 0-1.

AFC Telford United vs Bedford Town Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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