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Marine vs Radcliffe Prediction— England - National League - North

National League North · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Marine

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Radcliffe

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.8%0-24.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.5%1-111.4%1-26.8%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.9%2-19.5%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.4%3-15.3%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.2%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 46.5% 2.15 +0.4%

Draw 24.4% 29.4% 3.40 -10.2%

Away win 28.9% 35.7% 2.80 -11.5%

Over 2.5 57.0% 58.8% 1.70 -3.1%

Over 3.5 35.6% 38.2% 2.62 -6.7%

BTTS 56.5% 61.7% 1.62 -8.5%

Home O1.5 48.9% 50.0% 2.00 -2.2%

Away O1.5 36.0% 42.0% 2.38 -14.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.5%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0✓ 7.9%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marine1.7

Radcliffe1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MARINE · PPG 1.06

RADCLIFFE · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Marine (H) 46.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +0.4%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.2%

Radcliffe (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marine face Radcliffe in England - National League - North on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marine a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Radcliffe 29%, so Marine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Marine and 1.2 for Radcliffe (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marine are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.94 for Radcliffe. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Marine vs Radcliffe Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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