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Hereford vs Chester Prediction— England - National League - North

National League North · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Hereford

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chester

PPG 1.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-18.7%0-25.0%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.7%1-112.4%1-27.2%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.7%2-18.9%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.7%3-14.2%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 35.7% 2.80 +24.0%

Draw 26.6% 29.4% 3.40 -5.7%

Away win 29.0% 46.5% 2.15 -22.6%

Over 2.5 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 36.4% 2.75 -12.6%

BTTS 52.7% 59.9% 1.67 -12.0%

Home O1.5 40.1% 40.0% 2.50 +0.3%

Away O1.5 33.0% 47.6% 2.10 -30.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.4%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 0–0 7.5%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hereford1.4

Chester1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HEREFORD · PPG 1.86

CHESTER · PPG 1.95

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hereford (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +24.0%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.7%

Chester (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hereford face Chester in England - National League - North on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hereford a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Chester 29%, so Hereford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hereford and 1.2 for Chester (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hereford are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.95 for Chester. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Hereford vs Chester Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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