FA WSL
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 19 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
68.4%
1X2
13/19
57.9%
O/U 2.5
11/19
42.1%
BTTS
8/19
42.1%
Exact score
8/19
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
19
Settled
73.7%
Hit rate
14/19
1.42
Avg odds
-1.3%
ROI
-0.3u
Picks by market
AWAY WIN · N=7 71.4% HIT · AVG 1.29 · -15.7% ROI
HOME WIN · N=5 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.28 · +27.6% ROI
BTTS · N=5 40.0% HIT · AVG 1.67 · -36.0% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.64 · +63.5% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
✓ Solid
5
Bets
100%
Hit
+16.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
3
Bets
67%
Hit
+8.3%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
11
Bets
64%
Hit
-11.8%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 13 PICKS · 11 HIT · 2 MISS
16 MAY Liverpool W vs Arsenal W Away -19% 1–3 HIT16 MAY West Ham W vs Man City W Away -24% 1–4 HIT16 MAY London City L W vs Aston Villa W Over 2.5 +1% 2–1 HIT16 MAY Brighton W vs Tottenham W Over 2.5 -1% 1–2 HIT16 MAY Everton W vs Leicester W Home -9% 1–0 HIT16 MAY Chelsea W vs Man Utd W BTTS -3% 1–0 MISS13 MAY Arsenal W vs Everton W Home -26% 1–0 HIT9 MAY Aston Villa W vs Arsenal W Away -19% 0–3 HIT4 MAY Aston Villa W vs West Ham W BTTS -1% 0–2 MISS3 MAY Tottenham W vs London City L W BTTS -3% 2–1 HIT3 MAY Man City W vs Liverpool W Home -10% 1–0 HIT3 MAY Leicester W vs Chelsea W Away -26% 1–3 HIT2 MAY Man Utd W vs Brighton W BTTS -15% 1–1 HITApril 2026 // 2 PICKS · 2 HIT · 0 MISS
29 APR Arsenal W vs Leicester W Home -12% 7–0 HIT26 APR London City L W vs Leicester W Home -25% 5–1 HIT