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Man City W vs Liverpool W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 11:00

Man City W

PPG 3.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Liverpool W

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 76.2% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-12.4%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.7%1-16.4%1-22.7%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.5%2-18.8%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.6%3-18.0%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-012.7%4+-110.6%4+-24.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.2% 84.7% 1.18 -10.1%

Draw 15.9% 16.9% 5.90 -6.2%

Away win 7.9% 7.4% 13.50 +6.7%

Over 2.5 69.1% 70.4% 1.42 -1.9%

Over 3.5 47.8% 47.6% 2.10 +0.4%

BTTS 53.9% 51.8% 1.93 +4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.9%

H 76% / xG 2.7-0.8 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.5%

#2 3–0 9.6%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 1–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Man City W2.7

Liverpool W0.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.1% · O3.5 PROB 47.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MAN CITY W · PPG 3.00

LIVERPOOL W · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Man City W (H) 76.2%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -10.1%

Draw 15.9%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV -6.2%

Liverpool W (A) 7.9%

ODDS 13.50 · IMPLIED 7.4% EV +6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Man City W face Liverpool W in England - FA WSL on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Man City W a 76% chance, the draw 16% and Liverpool W 8%, so Man City W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Man City W and 0.8 for Liverpool W (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Man City W are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Liverpool W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Man City W vs Liverpool W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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