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London City L W vs Aston Villa W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

London City L W

PPG 1.30 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Aston Villa W

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.3%0-23.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.4%1-110.0%1-26.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.5%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.4%3-16.0%3-24.0%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.3%4+-22.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 46.3% 2.16 +10.6%

Draw 23.9% 28.2% 3.55 -9.1%

Away win 24.9% 34.7% 2.88 -17.0%

Over 2.5 61.4% 60.6% 1.65 +1.3%

Over 3.5 40.5% 38.2% 2.62 +6.1%

BTTS 59.7% 65.4% 1.53 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1✓ 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

London City L W1.9

Aston Villa W1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LONDON CITY L W · PPG 1.30

ASTON VILLA W · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.30), Away AVERAGE (1.10)

Win probability 1X2

London City L W (H) 51.2%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV +10.6%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -9.1%

Aston Villa W (A) 24.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

London City L W face Aston Villa W in England - FA WSL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives London City L W a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Aston Villa W 25%, so London City L W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for London City L W and 1.3 for Aston Villa W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, London City L W are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.10 for Aston Villa W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.6%. This match finished 2-1.

London City L W vs Aston Villa W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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