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England - FA WSL logo England flag England - FA WSL Regular Season - 22 Hayes Lane· London Saturday, May 16, 2026 12:00
London City L W logo London City L W PPG 1.30
2-1 HIT CS2
Aston Villa W logo Aston Villa W PPG 1.10
Home· +10.6% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
60% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 51.2%
Odds: 2.16 EV: +10.6%
Draw 23.9%
Odds: 3.55 EV: -9.1%
Away 24.9%
Odds: 2.88 EV: -17.0%
Model lean: Over 2.5
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.4% Odds: 1.65 +1.3%
Over 3.5 40.5% Odds: 2.62 +6.1%
BTTS 59.7% Odds: 1.53 -8.7%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 2-1
3rd 2-0
4th 1-2
5th 2-2

Expected Goals (xG)

London City L W
1.89
Aston Villa W
1.34

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 +1.3% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader: Home(+10.6%)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
60%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.30), Away AVERAGE (1.10)

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