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Arsenal W vs Everton W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Regular Season - 21 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 18:00

Arsenal W

PPG 2.40 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Everton W

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.0% vs bookmaker-implied 91.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-12.1%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.8%1-15.8%1-21.9%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.3%2-18.2%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.4%3-17.6%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.8%4+-110.5%4+-23.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.0% 91.7% 1.09 -25.9%

Draw 22.8% 12.5% 8.00 +49.4%

Away win 9.2% 4.8% 21.00 +55.9%

Over 2.5 63.3% 76.9% 1.30 -17.7%

Over 3.5 45.5% 56.5% 1.77 -19.5%

BTTS 50.9% 44.4% 2.25 +14.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob50.9%

H 68% / xG 2.8-0.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.3%

#2 3–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 4–0 8.0%

#5 1–0✓ 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal W2.8

Everton W0.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 45.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL W · PPG 2.40

EVERTON W · PPG 1.40

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.40), Away AVERAGE (1.40) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal W (H) 68.0%

ODDS 1.09 · IMPLIED 91.7% EV -25.9%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +49.4%

Everton W (A) 9.2%

ODDS 21.00 · IMPLIED 4.8% EV +55.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal W face Everton W in England - FA WSL on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal W a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Everton W 9%, so Arsenal W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Arsenal W and 0.7 for Everton W (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal W are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.40 for Everton W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +55.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Arsenal W vs Everton W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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