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Tottenham W vs London City L W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 11:00

Tottenham W

PPG 1.70 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

London City L W

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.0%0-24.6%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.5%1-111.3%1-27.5%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.9%2-19.1%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.7%3-14.9%3-23.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% 46.5% 2.15 -8.4%

Draw 27.7% 29.0% 3.45 -4.4%

Away win 29.7% 33.3% 3.00 -10.9%

Over 2.5 56.3% 55.6% 1.80 +1.3%

Over 3.5 33.9% 33.9% 2.95 +0.0%

BTTS 60.5% 62.5% 1.60 -3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.5%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1✓ 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tottenham W1.6

London City L W1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TOTTENHAM W · PPG 1.70

LONDON CITY L W · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.70) > Away AVERAGE (1.10)

Win probability 1X2

Tottenham W (H) 42.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -8.4%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.4%

London City L W (A) 29.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tottenham W face London City L W in England - FA WSL on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tottenham W a 43% chance, the draw 28% and London City L W 30%, so Tottenham W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Tottenham W and 1.3 for London City L W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tottenham W are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.10 for London City L W. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Tottenham W vs London City L W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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