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Liverpool W vs Arsenal W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Liverpool W

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Arsenal W

PPG 2.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 78.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-114.1%0-214.0%0-39.4%0-4+7.4%1 1-04.6%1-19.2%1-29.2%1-36.1%1-4+4.9%2 2-01.5%2-13.0%2-23.0%2-32.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-00.3%3-10.7%3-20.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.6% 10.0% 10.00 +21.6%

Draw 22.6% 20.0% 5.00 +7.8%

Away win 63.8% 78.7% 1.27 -19.0%

Over 2.5 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Over 3.5 27.6% 35.7% 2.80 -13.6%

BTTS 48.6% 46.5% 2.15 +4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob48.6%

A 64% / xG 0.7-2.0 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 14.0%

#2 0–1 14.1%

#3 1–1 9.2%

#4 0–3 9.4%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liverpool W0.7

Arsenal W2.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LIVERPOOL W · PPG 1.20

ARSENAL W · PPG 2.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.10) vs Home AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Liverpool W (H) 13.6%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +21.6%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +7.8%

Arsenal W (A) 63.8%

ODDS 1.27 · IMPLIED 78.7% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Liverpool W face Arsenal W in England - FA WSL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liverpool W a 14% chance, the draw 23% and Arsenal W 64%, so Arsenal W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Liverpool W and 2.0 for Arsenal W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liverpool W are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 2.10 for Arsenal W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.6%. This match finished 1-3.

Liverpool W vs Arsenal W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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