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Aston Villa W vs Arsenal W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 11:00

Aston Villa W

PPG 0.90 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Arsenal W

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 65.6% vs bookmaker-implied 81.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-17.0%0-29.9%0-39.4%0-4+13.5%1 1-02.1%1-16.0%1-28.5%1-38.1%1-4+11.6%2 2-00.9%2-12.6%2-23.7%2-33.5%2-4+5.0%3 3-00.3%3-10.7%3-21.1%3-31.0%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.8% 9.8% 10.25 +18.7%

Draw 21.6% 18.2% 5.50 +11.3%

Away win 65.6% 81.3% 1.23 -19.3%

Over 2.5 61.7% 70.4% 1.42 -12.4%

Over 3.5 50.9% 47.6% 2.10 +6.9%

BTTS 54.6% 56.5% 1.77 -3.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob54.6%

A 66% / xG 0.9-2.9 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.9%

#2 0–3✓ 9.4%

#3 1–2 8.5%

#4 1–3 8.1%

#5 1–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aston Villa W0.9

Arsenal W2.9

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 50.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ASTON VILLA W · PPG 0.90

ARSENAL W · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.90)

Win probability 1X2

Aston Villa W (H) 12.8%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV +18.7%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +11.3%

Arsenal W (A) 65.6%

ODDS 1.23 · IMPLIED 81.3% EV -19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aston Villa W face Arsenal W in England - FA WSL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aston Villa W a 13% chance, the draw 22% and Arsenal W 66%, so Arsenal W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Aston Villa W and 2.9 for Arsenal W (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aston Villa W are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 2.00 for Arsenal W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.7%. This match finished 0-3.

Aston Villa W vs Arsenal W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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