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Chelsea W vs Man Utd W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Chelsea W

PPG 2.40 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Man Utd W

PPG 2.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-18.5%0-25.1%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.4%1-112.3%1-27.3%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.5%2-18.9%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.6%3-14.3%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 72.5% 1.38 -36.8%

Draw 27.5% 23.3% 4.30 +10.9%

Away win 26.8% 13.0% 7.70 +63.8%

Over 2.5 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Over 3.5 27.1% 36.4% 2.75 -15.3%

BTTS 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 7.2%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 1–0✓ 10.4%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chelsea W1.4

Man Utd W1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CHELSEA W · PPG 2.40

MAN UTD W · PPG 2.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.40), Away EXCELLENT (2.10)

Win probability 1X2

Chelsea W (H) 45.8%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -36.8%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +10.9%

Man Utd W (A) 26.8%

ODDS 7.70 · IMPLIED 13.0% EV +63.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chelsea W face Man Utd W in England - FA WSL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chelsea W a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Man Utd W 27%, so Chelsea W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Chelsea W and 1.2 for Man Utd W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chelsea W are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 2.10 for Man Utd W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +63.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Chelsea W vs Man Utd W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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