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Brighton W vs Tottenham W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Brighton W

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tottenham W

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.6%0-24.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.2%1-110.2%1-27.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.9%3-15.6%3-23.9%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.8%4+-22.7%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 46.7% 2.14 +5.1%

Draw 24.6% 28.2% 3.55 -7.6%

Away win 26.3% 34.0% 2.94 -13.6%

Over 2.5 61.4% 61.7% 1.62 -0.5%

Over 3.5 40.3% 39.2% 2.55 +2.8%

BTTS 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2✓ 7.2%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brighton W1.8

Tottenham W1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BRIGHTON W · PPG 1.50

TOTTENHAM W · PPG 1.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.30)

Win probability 1X2

Brighton W (H) 49.1%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV +5.1%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.6%

Tottenham W (A) 26.3%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brighton W face Tottenham W in England - FA WSL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brighton W a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Tottenham W 26%, so Brighton W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Brighton W and 1.4 for Tottenham W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brighton W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.30 for Tottenham W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Brighton W vs Tottenham W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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