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Man Utd W vs Brighton W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 11:00

Man Utd W

PPG 1.80 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Brighton W

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-17.3%0-23.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.5%1-111.8%1-26.1%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.5%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.0%3-15.1%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 67.6% 1.48 -26.9%

Draw 28.3% 23.8% 4.20 +18.9%

Away win 22.3% 17.4% 5.75 +28.2%

Over 2.5 49.3% 65.4% 1.53 -24.6%

Over 3.5 27.4% 42.6% 2.35 -35.6%

BTTS 53.2% 62.5% 1.60 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.2%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.8%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Man Utd W1.6

Brighton W1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.3% · O3.5 PROB 27.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MAN UTD W · PPG 1.80

BRIGHTON W · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Man Utd W (H) 49.4%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -26.9%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +18.9%

Brighton W (A) 22.3%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +28.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Man Utd W face Brighton W in England - FA WSL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Man Utd W a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Brighton W 22%, so Man Utd W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Man Utd W and 1.0 for Brighton W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Man Utd W are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.00 for Brighton W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +28.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Man Utd W vs Brighton W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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