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Leicester W vs Chelsea W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:30

Leicester W

PPG 0.70 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Chelsea W

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 69.4% vs bookmaker-implied 93.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-110.6%0-212.0%0-39.1%0-4+8.8%1 1-03.7%1-18.4%1-29.6%1-37.2%1-4+7.0%2 2-01.5%2-13.4%2-23.8%2-32.9%2-4+2.8%3 3-00.4%3-10.9%3-21.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 10.3% 4.2% 24.00 +147.2%

Draw 20.3% 11.2% 8.90 +80.7%

Away win 69.4% 93.5% 1.07 -25.7%

Over 2.5 59.1% 78.1% 1.28 -24.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 58.8% 1.70 -37.6%

BTTS 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob50.4%

A 69% / xG 0.8-2.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.0%

#2 1–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 9.6%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 0–3 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leicester W0.8

Chelsea W2.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEICESTER W · PPG 0.70

CHELSEA W · PPG 1.90

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.90) vs Home POOR (0.70)

Win probability 1X2

Leicester W (H) 10.3%

ODDS 24.00 · IMPLIED 4.2% EV +147.2%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 8.90 · IMPLIED 11.2% EV +80.7%

Chelsea W (A) 69.4%

ODDS 1.07 · IMPLIED 93.5% EV -25.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leicester W face Chelsea W in England - FA WSL on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leicester W a 10% chance, the draw 20% and Chelsea W 69%, so Chelsea W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Leicester W and 2.3 for Chelsea W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leicester W are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 1.90 for Chelsea W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +147.2%. This match finished 1-3.

Leicester W vs Chelsea W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - FA WSL Predictions