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London City L W vs Leicester W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 11:00

London City L W

PPG 1.11 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Leicester W

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 70.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-16.1%0-21.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.9%1-19.9%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.4%2-18.1%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.4%3-14.4%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-12.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 70.9% 1.41 -25.3%

Draw 30.0% 23.8% 4.20 +26.0%

Away win 17.0% 14.7% 6.80 +15.6%

Over 2.5 44.4% 58.8% 1.70 -24.5%

Over 3.5 17.2% 36.4% 2.75 -52.7%

BTTS 48.3% 54.6% 1.83 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.3%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.9%

#2 2–0 15.4%

#3 0–0 11.6%

#4 1–1 9.9%

#5 3–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

London City L W1.6

Leicester W0.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LONDON CITY L W · PPG 1.11

LEICESTER W · PPG 0.25

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.11) vs P(Home)=53.0%

Win probability 1X2

London City L W (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.41 · IMPLIED 70.9% EV -25.3%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +26.0%

Leicester W (A) 17.0%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

London City L W face Leicester W in England - FA WSL on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives London City L W a 53% chance, the draw 30% and Leicester W 17%, so London City L W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for London City L W and 0.5 for Leicester W (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, London City L W are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.25 for Leicester W. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +26.0%. This match finished 5-1.

London City L W vs Leicester W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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