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West Ham W vs Man City W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

West Ham W

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Man City W

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 65.3% vs bookmaker-implied 86.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-17.6%0-210.8%0-310.1%0-4+14.1%1 1-02.1%1-16.0%1-28.5%1-38.0%1-4+11.2%2 2-00.8%2-12.4%2-23.4%2-33.2%2-4+4.4%3 3-00.2%3-10.6%3-20.9%3-30.8%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.5% 6.5% 15.50 +65.5%

Draw 21.2% 16.7% 6.00 +16.3%

Away win 65.3% 86.2% 1.16 -24.3%

Over 2.5 63.9% 72.5% 1.38 -11.8%

Over 3.5 48.6% 51.8% 1.93 -6.2%

BTTS 51.9% 52.6% 1.90 -1.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob51.9%

A 65% / xG 0.8-2.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.8%

#2 0–3 10.1%

#3 1–2 8.5%

#4 1–3 8.0%

#5 0–4 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

West Ham W0.8

Man City W2.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 48.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WEST HAM W · PPG 1.00

MAN CITY W · PPG 1.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.90) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

West Ham W (H) 13.5%

ODDS 15.50 · IMPLIED 6.5% EV +65.5%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +16.3%

Man City W (A) 65.3%

ODDS 1.16 · IMPLIED 86.2% EV -24.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

West Ham W face Man City W in England - FA WSL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives West Ham W a 14% chance, the draw 21% and Man City W 65%, so Man City W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for West Ham W and 2.8 for Man City W (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, West Ham W are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.90 for Man City W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +65.5%. This match finished 1-4.

West Ham W vs Man City W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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