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Everton W vs Leicester W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Everton W

PPG 0.60 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Leicester W

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-14.8%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.2%1-19.7%1-23.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.2%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.2%3-16.5%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-15.2%4+-22.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.3% 61.0% 1.64 -9.3%

Draw 24.5% 26.3% 3.80 -4.1%

Away win 20.2% 21.7% 4.60 -4.3%

Over 2.5 52.6% 56.5% 1.77 -6.9%

Over 3.5 30.9% 33.9% 2.95 -8.8%

BTTS 51.6% 57.8% 1.73 -10.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 55% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.2%

#2 1–1 9.7%

#3 1–0✓ 12.2%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Everton W2.0

Leicester W0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

EVERTON W · PPG 0.60

LEICESTER W · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.60) > Away POOR (0.20)

Win probability 1X2

Everton W (H) 55.3%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -9.3%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.1%

Leicester W (A) 20.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Everton W face Leicester W in England - FA WSL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Everton W a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Leicester W 20%, so Everton W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Everton W and 0.8 for Leicester W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Everton W are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 0.20 for Leicester W. This match finished 1-0.

Everton W vs Leicester W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - FA WSL Predictions