First NL
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 42 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
52.4%
1X2
22/42
45.2%
O/U 2.5
19/42
35.7%
BTTS
15/42
38.1%
Exact score
16/42
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
16
Settled
50.0%
Hit rate
8/16
1.86
Avg odds
-10.0%
ROI
-1.6u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=11 63.6% HIT · AVG 1.84 · +15.0% ROI
BTTS · N=5 20.0% HIT · AVG 1.90 · -65.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
7
Bets
71%
Hit
+19.3%
ROI
✓ Solid
2
Bets
50%
Hit
+25.0%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
7
Bets
29%
Hit
-49.3%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 3 PICKS · 2 HIT · 1 MISS
30 MAY Jarun vs Cibalia BTTS -10% 1–1 HIT30 MAY Orijent vs Dugopolje — NO PICK 3–0 —30 MAY Hrvace vs Dubrava Zagreb — NO PICK 1–2 —30 MAY Bijelo Brdo vs C. Zmijavci — NO PICK 0–1 —29 MAY Rudes vs Sesvete — NO PICK 3–1 —29 MAY Opatija vs Karlovac — NO PICK 3–1 —24 MAY C. Zmijavci vs Hrvace — NO PICK 3–0 —23 MAY Dugopolje vs Rudes — NO PICK 0–3 —23 MAY Dubrava Zagreb vs Opatija — NO PICK 3–2 —23 MAY Cibalia vs Orijent Home 3–2 HIT22 MAY Sesvete vs Bijelo Brdo — NO PICK 2–1 —22 MAY Karlovac vs Jarun — NO PICK 2–1 —17 MAY Jarun vs Dubrava Zagreb — NO PICK 0–2 —16 MAY Sesvete vs Dugopolje — NO PICK 1–2 —16 MAY Orijent vs Karlovac BTTS +8% 1–0 MISS