First NL
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 56 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
51.8%
1X2
29/56
46.4%
O/U 2.5
26/56
41.1%
BTTS
23/56
44.6%
Exact score
25/56
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
16
Settled
43.8%
Hit rate
7/16
1.95
Avg odds
-20.0%
ROI
-3.2u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=13 53.8% HIT · AVG 1.94 · -1.5% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=2 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.00 · -100.0% ROI
BTTS · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.10 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
7
Bets
71%
Hit
+19.3%
ROI
✓ Solid
3
Bets
33%
Hit
-16.7%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
5
Bets
20%
Hit
-61.0%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
1
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
September 2026 // 7 PICKS · 1 HIT · 6 MISS
2 SEPT Segesta Sisak vs Kustosija BTTS -3% 0–0 MISS2 SEPT Dugopolje vs Karlovac 1919 Home +7% 2–2 MISS2 SEPT Jadran LP vs Dubrava Zagreb HO1.5 1–1 MISS2 SEPT Mladost Ždralovi vs Sesvete BTTS -3% 1–0 MISS2 SEPT Croatia Zmijavci vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo Home -5% 1–0 HIT2 SEPT Opatija vs Hrvace HO1.5 1–0 MISS2 SEPT HNK Cibalia vs Orijent 1919 Home +6% 0–0 MISSAugust 2026 // 6 PICKS · 5 HIT · 1 MISS
29 AUG Karlovac 1919 vs Opatija BTTS -3% 2–1 HIT28 AUG Sesvete vs Dugopolje Home +32% 1–2 MISS28 AUG Dubrava Zagreb vs Croatia Zmijavci BTTS -3% 1–2 HIT28 AUG Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs HNK Cibalia — NO PICK 1–1 —23 AUG Croatia Zmijavci vs Hrvace Home 3–0 HIT22 AUG HNK Cibalia vs Dubrava Zagreb Home -19% 2–1 HIT21 AUG Sesvete vs Karlovac 1919 Home +7% 3–0 HITMay 2026 // 1 PICK · 1 HIT · 0 MISS
30 MAY Jarun vs Cibalia BTTS -10% 1–1 HIT