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Croatia Zmijavci vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 15:00

Croatia Zmijavci

PPG 1.51 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

UPCOMING

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-18.0%0-23.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.5%1-112.1%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.1%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.5%3-14.6%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 54.1% 1.85 -4.9%

Draw 26.1% 32.3% 3.10 -11.5%

Away win 22.5% 25.0% 4.00 -6.0%

Over 2.5 45.4% 40.0% 2.50 +13.5%

Over 3.5 26.2% 22.2% 4.50 +10.7%

BTTS 48.0% 44.4% 2.25 +8.0%

Home O1.5 39.9% 42.0% 2.38 -5.0%

Away O1.5 23.8% 23.1% 4.33 +1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.5%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 2–0 11.0%

#4 0–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Croatia Zmijavci1.5

Bsk Bijelo Brdo0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.4% · O3.5 PROB 26.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CROATIA ZMIJAVCI · PPG 1.51

BSK BIJELO BRDO · PPG 1.02

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Croatia Zmijavci (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -4.9%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.5%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo (A) 22.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Croatia Zmijavci face Bsk Bijelo Brdo in Croatia - First NL on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Croatia Zmijavci a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Bsk Bijelo Brdo 23%, so Croatia Zmijavci are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Croatia Zmijavci and 0.8 for Bsk Bijelo Brdo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Croatia Zmijavci are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 1.02 for Bsk Bijelo Brdo. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +19.4%.

Croatia Zmijavci vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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