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Dubrava Zagreb vs Croatia Zmijavci Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 15:30

Dubrava Zagreb

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Croatia Zmijavci

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.8%0-24.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.7%1-112.0%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.3%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.3%3-14.8%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 40.0% 2.50 +9.0%

Draw 27.0% 35.7% 2.80 -14.6%

Away win 29.4% 38.5% 2.60 -14.1%

Over 2.5 50.5% 45.7% 2.19 +10.6%

Over 3.5 28.8% 25.0% 4.00 +9.1%

BTTS 52.7% 54.1% 1.85 -2.5%

Home O1.5 44.5% 36.8% 2.72 +21.0%

Away O1.5 33.0% 36.8% 2.72 -10.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 0–0 6.9%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dubrava Zagreb1.5

Croatia Zmijavci1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DUBRAVA ZAGREB · PPG 1.64

CROATIA ZMIJAVCI · PPG 1.21

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dubrava Zagreb (H) 43.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +9.0%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.6%

Croatia Zmijavci (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dubrava Zagreb face Croatia Zmijavci in Croatia - First NL on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dubrava Zagreb a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Croatia Zmijavci 29%, so Dubrava Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Dubrava Zagreb and 1.1 for Croatia Zmijavci (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dubrava Zagreb are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.21 for Croatia Zmijavci. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Dubrava Zagreb vs Croatia Zmijavci Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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