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Segesta Sisak vs Kustosija Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 15:00

Segesta Sisak

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

UPCOMING

Kustosija

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-16.7%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.9%1-111.4%1-25.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.7%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.7%3-15.5%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 55.6% 1.80 -6.6%

Draw 24.3% 31.3% 3.20 -13.3%

Away win 23.8% 25.0% 4.00 -2.9%

Over 2.5 51.1% 51.3% 1.95 -0.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 29.4% 3.40 +7.4%

BTTS 52.9% 54.6% 1.83 -3.2%

Home O1.5 49.9% 52.4% 1.91 -4.7%

Away O1.5 26.1% 28.6% 3.50 -5.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 2–0 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Segesta Sisak1.7

Kustosija1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SEGESTA SISAK · PPG 1.75

KUSTOSIJA · PPG 1.42

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Segesta Sisak (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -6.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.3%

Kustosija (A) 23.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Segesta Sisak face Kustosija in Croatia - First NL on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Segesta Sisak a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Kustosija 24%, so Segesta Sisak are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Segesta Sisak and 1.0 for Kustosija (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Segesta Sisak are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.42 for Kustosija. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.4%.

Segesta Sisak vs Kustosija Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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